October 2025 freight & logistics market update
In this October 2025 freight & logistics market update, we translate market signals into shipper actions. From driver availability in European road freight to ocean rate management, air cargo peaks and warehouse automation, you’ll find what matters now—and how to secure capacity, control costs and protect lead times.
Road Freight (Europe)
Road capacity remains uneven across regions and particularly on longer cross-border lanes due to persistent driver shortages. At the same time, planning and visibility keep improving as AI-driven dispatch, ETA forecasting and route optimisation roll out across fleets. In the Netherlands, the upcoming distance-based truck charge adds a structural compliance component to pricing and contracts. Secure loading/unloading slots early on critical lanes, combine committed base capacity with flexible options for peak weeks, and make lane-specific CO₂ and compliance terms explicit in contracts.
Ocean Freight
Global vessel capacity is ample, but carriers manage supply via blank sailings, speed management and rotation tweaks. Seasonal patterns and inventory moves can trigger short volatility; rates are likely to rise in the second half of October. Bypass routing around the Red Sea remains relevant and Panama continues under tight water/capacity management, affecting reliability. Book early, build buffer time into schedules, align delivery plans across your chain, and check how CO₂, fuel and risk surcharges are applied — agreeing rerouting and performance terms up front.
Air Freight
Volumes are supported by e-commerce and high-value or time-critical cargo. Overall lift (belly + freighter) is sufficient with brief spikes toward year-end, keeping transit times predictable on most lanes. EU “green” fuel policies make sustainability surcharges standard on EU departures, and shippers increasingly request lower-emission products and clearer footprint reporting. Balance contract and spot by lane/week, plan temperature- or time-critical shipments well ahead (including fallback gateways), and anchor sustainability and service levels in procurement.
Warehousing
Prime locations in gateway and consumer regions fill quickly into peak season; secondary parks offer more choice and negotiation room. Market conditions are stabilising as users prioritise proximity to consumers and main gateways. Automation (goods-to-person, AMRs, AI-assisted slotting) is rolling out faster to raise throughput and labour productivity. Energy resilience rises in importance: rooftop solar, battery storage and EV charging are becoming core to the business case. Renew early in prime hubs and use secondary parks for scalable, automation-ready solutions; for new sites, request explicit energy options, decarbonisation plans and data reporting.
Snapshot: Demand • Capacity • Rates
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Demand: Air and warehousing benefit from e-commerce and peak preparation; ocean is sensitive to routing and inventory strategies; road is stable but tight on select corridors.
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Capacity: Ocean/air broadly ample with short peaks; road uneven by region; prime warehouses remain tight.
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Rates: Ocean under pressure with possible late-October upticks; road broadly stable with compliance effects; air stable with green surcharges; warehousing firm for efficient, energy-secure asset
