January 2026 freight & logistics market update
January opens 2026 with a familiar pattern; a short post-holiday reset, followed quickly by planning for Chinese New Year (17 February 2026). Across modes, the headline themes are route and schedule uncertainty in ocean freight (especially linked to any gradual return of services via the Suez/Red Sea corridor), air cargo reliability driven by ground performance, road freight capacity that remains structurally tight on specific lanes, and warehousing shaped by automation, energy availability and returns/rework flows. Below we summarise what matters in January across sea, air, road and warehousing, and what shippers can do to stay in control.
Road Freight (Europe)
European road freight typically starts the year with restart volumes as production and replenishment cycles resume. While demand is usually manageable, capacity remains structurally influenced by driver shortages, tighter compliance expectations, and winter-weather disruption on sensitive corridors. Cost discussions in January often reset around fuel, tolls, labour and compliance frameworks, so shippers benefit from confirming budget assumptions early and keeping flexibility for weather-related delays.
Ocean Freight
Ocean freight starts 2026 with ample underlying vessel capacity, but “effective” capacity and reliability remain highly dependent on routing choices, network transitions, and available booking space.
Towards CNY, bookings are expected to become more difficult to secure and proceed smoothly due to reduced booking space on key sailings, increasing the risk of rollovers and longer lead times for confirmation.
Some carriers are conducting limited “test” transits via the Suez corridor, but this is still far from a full, stable return to regular service; so near-term planning should continue to assume ongoing network variability and constrained space availability on preferred routings.
Air Freight
Air cargo in January usually shifts from peak into a more predictable pattern, but it can firm up quickly as shippers plan around pre–Chinese New Year cut-offs. Capacity is generally supported by passenger belly networks, yet reliability continues to hinge on ground handling capacity, screening lead times, and hub slot constraints, often more than aircraft space itself. For time-critical SKUs, shippers are well served by booking uplift with clear handover/cut-off discipline and using alternative gateways when primary hubs compress.
Warehousing
Warehousing starts the year with a strong focus on returns processing, rework/kitting, and fast replenishment, especially for omnichannel supply chains. Prime logistics locations near ports and major consumer regions remain highly utilised, while secondary parks can offer faster move-in options and more flexibility for tailored automation and value-added setups.
In the Netherlands and wider North-West Europe, “future-ready” warehousing conversations increasingly include energy security (available grid capacity, electrification plans, and the feasibility of automation/EV charging). Shippers looking to expand or reconfigure in 2026 benefit from assessing both operational fit (labour, cut-offs, throughput) and infrastructure readiness (power, connectivity, expansion options).
Snapshot: Demand • Capacity • Rates
- Demand: Road and warehousing rebound from the holiday lull; ocean planning accelerates as shippers position for pre‑CNY; air demand strengthens for urgent cargo and schedule-risk mitigation.
- Capacity: Ocean and air are broadly adequate but sensitive to routing changes and ground constraints; road capacity remains uneven on driver-intensive lanes and winter-affected corridors; prime warehousing stays tight.
- Rates: Ocean generally steady-to-soft with tactical volatility around schedule changes; road mostly stable with cost-framework resets; air stable with premiums for guaranteed uplift/handling windows; warehousing remains firm for automation- and energy-ready sites.
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