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September 2025 freight & logistics market update

Sea freight: rates under pressure as demand cools

Spot rates continue to slide as consumption eases and available tonnage outpaces cargo. Carriers have blanked sailings and tweaked schedules to slow the descent, but weaker demand is outweighing those efforts. Barring fresh disruptions or a sudden trade upswing, the correction trend is set to continue.

Key takeaways:

• Demand: Cooling; less front-loading and fewer early bookings.
• Capacity: Ample; newbuilds and idle vessels keep space plentiful.
• Rates: Persistent downward pressure; rate floors not biting yet.

Route insights:

• China → Netherlands: Declines persist despite capacity cuts; early booking less critical, but Red Sea risk premia remain.
• USA → Netherlands: Panama Canal recovery lifts schedule reliability; volumes modest and carriers still eye GRIs.

September outlook: Soft rate environment. Capacity discipline may slow the slide, but without tighter demand or supply shocks, a sustained rebound looks unlikely.

Air freight: sustainability is standard, capacity remains healthy

The EU SAF mandate has introduced green surcharges that are now standard across departures. Recent heatwaves triggered temporary runway restrictions at major hubs. Even so, capacity is ample and demand steady, with more shippers opting for lower-carbon solutions.

Key takeaways:

• Demand: Solid; e-commerce and pharma drive volumes, tenders increasingly specify ‘green’ air.
• Capacity: Abundant belly and freighter lift; extreme heat can impose ad-hoc throughput limits.
• Rates: Generally stable; SAF blends add a predictable surcharge.

Route insights:

• China → Netherlands: SAF-linked products gaining traction among e-commerce exporters.
• USA → Netherlands: Comfortable space; some carriers waive add-ons under long-term SAF deals.

September outlook: Rates to remain steady into fall. Build in buffer for temperature-sensitive cargo during potential weather-related constraints.

Road freight: efficiency, tech and compliance

Driver shortages persist across Europe while Dutch exports provide a steady volume base. Many carriers are piloting AI-driven route planning, and consolidation continues across the sector. The Dutch truck toll (July 2026) is on the horizon, adding compliance and cost considerations.

Key takeaways:

• Demand: Moderately steady; driver scarcity and cost inflation temper growth.
• Capacity: Adequate but uneven regionally; long-haul lanes see bottlenecks.
• Rates: Stable with gentle upward pressure from compliance and fuel.

Route insights:

• Netherlands → Spain: Early electric line-haul pilots are gaining traction, offering low-emission choices.
• Netherlands → Turkey: Border compliance remains time-consuming; firm transit times.

September outlook: Carriers investing in driver retention and smart tech gain an efficiency edge. Expect incremental surcharges tied to greener operations.

Warehousing: automation and energy resilience accelerate

Labour constraints and summer heat are speeding up investments in robotics and energy-resilient infrastructure. Dutch sites are adopting goods-to-person systems and AI slotting, while rooftop solar and battery storage help counter power volatility. Capacity is tight at prime hubs, so securing space early remains key.

Key takeaways:

• Demand: Strong, underpinned by omnichannel fulfilment and safety stock.
• Capacity: Tight at prime hubs, expanding across secondary parks.
• Rates: Firm, with premiums for automated and energy-resilient facilities.

Market snapshot:

• Rotterdam & Antwerp: Prime capacity fills quickly ahead of Q4 peaks; automation is mainstreaming.
• Dutch hinterland: Secondary parks expanding with robotics and ‘green-ready’ builds.

September outlook: Automation and energy projects will keep momentum. Secure slots well in advance of peak season.

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